The short version: September 2026 came in at 143,666 tourist arrivals through the 29th — essentially flat against the full month of September 2025 (144,020), at -0.2%. With late-month daily arrivals reaching 6,284 on the 27th and 6,264 on the 29th — the highest days of the month — the full September figure may finish marginally above last year. The year-to-date deficit against 2025 now stands at -3.4%, or roughly 56,000 visitors. That number masks something significant: the deficit was almost entirely created in two months. Strip out March and April — the worst of the Iran war disruption — and the rest of the year is broadly flat. The sector enters peak season having recovered most of the ground it lost in the first quarter.
The year in nine months
The recovery from the Iran war shock has been more complete than the headline YTD figure suggests. The month-by-month picture:
Month 2026 2025 Change January 227,403 216,544 +5.0% February 254,556 216,309 +17.7% March 166,616 207,707 −19.8% April 152,861 202,214 −24.4% May 142,555 140,211 +1.7% June 125,891 143,099 −12.0% July 184,735 188,304 −1.9% August 197,640 193,529 +2.1% September (1–29) 143,666 144,020 −0.2%
The arc is clear. The year entered March on pace for a record. Gulf airspace disruption following the US and Israeli strikes on Iran knocked 41% off daily arrivals in the first three days of March, and the damage accumulated through April. The ceasefire took effect on 8 April. May recorded a modest recovery. June remained suppressed — elevated fares replacing access as the primary drag. July and August both came in near-par. September effectively drew level.
The -3.4% YTD deficit represents roughly 56,000 fewer visitors than 2025 through 29 September. Two months — March and April combined — account for approximately 90,000 of that shortfall. The other seven months of the year, taken together, are in aggregate above 2025. The underlying demand picture, once routing and fare headwinds are controlled for, has been resilient.
Australia enters the top 10
The most significant structural shift in the year-to-date nationality data is Australia’s rise. Through 29 September 2026, Australia has sent 37,227 tourists to the Maldives — enough to place it seventh in the world, up from eleventh in 2025.
Top 10 nationalities, YTD through 29 September 2026:
Rank Market Arrivals Share 2025 Rank 1 China 298,891 19.1% 1 2 Russia 228,681 14.6% 2 3 United Kingdom 119,687 7.6% 3 4 Germany 98,825 6.3% 4 5 Italy 97,913 6.2% 5 6 India 90,392 5.8% 6 7 Australia 37,227 2.4% 11 8 United States 37,216 2.4% 7 9 France 36,946 2.4% 8 10 Spain 32,138 2.1% 9
Australia’s four-place rise in a single year is the largest positional move of any market in the top 10. Australia routes through Singapore and Kuala Lumpur — not Gulf hubs — which meant its travelers were effectively insulated from the routing disruption that hit European arrivals in March and April. That structural advantage, combined with the underlying growth trajectory of Australian outbound travel to the Indian Ocean, appears to be what’s behind the move. A dedicated look at the Australian market is worth considering as peak season opens.
Italy, at #5 with 97,913 arrivals, is worth noting in its own right. Its presence in the top five, despite being down 14.6% YTD due to the Iran war’s impact on Gulf-routing European travelers, and despite the TGST controversy that saw an Italian operator suspend bookings in the first week of October, confirms that Italian demand for the Maldives is structural and not fragile.
What peak season inherits
The guesthouse sector enters peak season with 920 properties operational, 16,748 beds, and a YTD share of 22.0% of total tourist arrivals (344,215 guests through 29 September). The full 2025 year ended with guesthouse share at approximately 23-24%, so the sector’s share has compressed slightly, a pattern worth watching through peak.
The daily arrivals chart for September tells a useful story. The month opened with daily figures in the 4,000–4,700 range — consistent with September’s historical profile as a soft shoulder month (seasonal index 78, per the Ministry Yearbook). The closing days ran materially higher: 6,034 on the 26th, 6,284 on the 27th, and 6,264 on the 29th. The month did not simply drift — it accelerated into peak season.
Peak season officially begins in October. The 2025 full year ended at 2,275,088 total visitors; the 2024 full year was 2,074,442. With the nine-month 2026 figure at 1,595,923 and the deficit narrowed to -3.4%, a flat or modest recovery in peak season would close the year within a few percent of 2025 — a very different outcome from what March and April threatened.
Two complications remain open. First, elevated airfares on Gulf-hub-dependent European routes have suppressed demand below what would otherwise be a stronger recovery; the London–Malé return economy average has been running above £1,100 through the year, against a pre-conflict norm of £600–750. Second, the offshore TGST revision is live but unresolved — its final form will affect how aggressively European tour operators and OTAs promote the Maldives through the peak booking window.
The numbers through September say recovery. What October, November, and December make of it is the year’s remaining question.
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